The Harvard Law Record has conducted a poll of members of the HLS community, finding strong support for Sen. Marco Rubio and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Though HLS students strongly preferred Rubio and Sanders for their respective parties’ nominations, however, students selected Cruz and Clinton as the most likely eventual candidates.
The Record polled approximately 7% of the student body, asking questions regarding both nominations preferences and predictions, as well as preferences in various likely presidential matchups. Among Harvard Law Students, Sen. Rubio significantly outperformed both Sen. Cruz and Donald Trump in matchups against both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
Though a majority of students said they preferred Sen. Sanders to Clinton, Clinton performed better against Trump and Sen. Cruz, while Sen. Sanders performed slightly better against Sen. Rubio among decided voters. Matchups involving Sen. Sanders were more polarizing, with less HLS students undecided concerning who they would vote for. Detailed results by question are included below.
Who would you personally support for the Republican nomination?
N/A: 69.4%
Marco Rubio: 13.2%
Rand Paul: 4.1%
Donald Trump: 3.3%
Jeb Bush: 3.3%
John Kasich: 3.3%
Ted Cruz: 2.5%
Chris Christie: 0.8%
Ben Carson: 0%
Mike Huckabee: 0%
Carly Fiorina: 0%
Rick Santorum: 0%
Other: 0%
We asked students who they personally supported for the Republican nomination. Those who are registered as Democrat were asked to select N/A. Among those who answered, 43.2% preferred Sen. Marco Rubio, nearly 30% more than any other Republican candidate. 13.5% preferred Sen. Rand Paul, while 10.8% preferred Trump, who was tied with both Jeb Bush and John Kasich. Sen. Ted Cruz, who has been a steady #2 in national polls, falls to #6 among HLS students, with 8.1% of support. Chris Christie also registered 2.7%. Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, and Rick Santorum were also included the poll, but were not preferred among any students.
Who do you believe is the most likely Republican nominee?
Ted Cruz: 34.7%
Marco Rubio: 31.4%
Donald Trump: 31.4%
Jeb Bush: 1.7%
Chris Christie: 0.8%
Ben Carson: 0%
John Kasich: 0%
Mike Huckabee: 0%
Rand Paul: 0%
Carly Fiorina: 0%
Rick Santorum: 0%
Other: 0%
We asked students who they believe is the most likely Republican presidential nominee. 34.7% of students predicted Ted Cruz to prevail, while 31.4% predicted Marco Rubio to be the eventual nominee, who tied with Donald Trump, also at 31.4%. 1.7% of students predicted Jeb Bush to receive the nomination, while 0.8% predicted Chris Christie as the eventual nominee.
Who would you personally support for the Democratic nomination?
Bernie Sanders: 43.8%
Hillary Clinton: 35.5%
N/A: 17.4%
Other: 2.5%
Martin O’Malley: 0.8%
We asked students who they would support for the Democratic nomination. Of those who had a preference, 53% preferred Sen. Bernie Sanders, and 43% preferred Hillary Clinton. 3% selected Other, while Martin O’Malley received 1% of responses.
Who do you believe is the most likely Democratic nominee?
Hillary Clinton: 86%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Martin O’Malley: 0%
Other: 0%
Though Sen. Sanders received 53% of support from those who had a preference, 86% of students predicted Hillary Clinton to be the eventual nominee. We also polled students regarding the 6 most likely Presidential election match ups.
We asked students who they would vote for if the nominees were Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Clinton received 81% of votes, while Trump received 8.3%. 10.7% were undecided. Against Ted Cruz, Clinton received 76.9% of votes, while Cruz received 14%. 9.1% were undecided in the Clinton/Cruz matchup. Against Marco Rubio, Clinton received nearly 10% less votes compared to her numbers against Cruz, and nearly 15% less than the 81% she received against Trump. Against Rubio, Clinton got 67.8% of votes, Sen. Rubio got 24% of votes, and 8.3% were undecided.
Bernie Sanders performed slightly worse against Donald Trump, receiving 75.2% of votes. 11.6% supported Trump, and 13.2% were undecided. Sanders and Clinton performed similarly against Ted Cruz among HLS student voters, with 75.2% supporting Sen. Sanders and 18.2% supporting Cruz, with 6.6% undecided. Against Rubio, Bernie Sanders was preferred by 69.4%, and Sen. Rubio was preferred by 26.4%. 4.1% were undecided.